Saturday, December 28, 2013

Bias: mengapa orang pintar sebenarnya tak sepandai yang mereka pikirkan

Tiba-tiba tak ada angin, tak ada hujan, tak ada petir menggelegar - dan tak ada cowok cakep lewat - , muncul hasrat untuk menulis tentang bias. Bukan. lstilah bias yang kumaksud bukan istilah bias yang lagi ngetren di kalangan remaja yang biasanya berarti anggota favorit dari boyband, girlband, maupun band Jepang & Korea. Walaupun sebenarnya masih ada benang merahnya juga sich.  He he he.

Berdasarkan kamus, bias berarti "simpangan", kecenderungan untuk percaya bahwa suatu ide, orang, dll lebih baik dari yang lain dan biasanya menyebabkan orang menilai/memutuskan sesuatu secara tidak adil. Makanya anggota favorit dari band Jepang atau Korea disebut bias, karena kita lebih menyukainya dibandingkan anggota yang lain sehingga perlakuan kita terhadap member lain jadi kurang adil. Lebih memilih merchandise dari anggota favorit kita misalnya. He he he. Back to the topic, bias yang kumaksud disini adalah bias secara umum, terutama tentang cognitive biases. Kenapa ini penting? Dari pengalaman, aku mendapati bahwa memang terkadang bias membuat kita jadi tidak dapat mengambil keputusan yang benar. Bahkan para ahli pun bisa bias.

Sebenarnya aku sudah ingin menulis tentang hal ini sejak tahun lalu. Sejak aku membaca buku "Thinking, Fast & Slow" karangan Daniel Kahneman, profesor psikologi Princeton University yang juga peraih nobel di bidang ekonomi tahun 2002. Tapi berhubung kesibukan yang menyita waktu akhirnya hal ini tidak jadi kulakukan. Keinginan ini kembali muncul setelah membaca buku "The (Honest) Truth about Dishonesty" karangan Dan Ariely, profesor psikologi Duke University. Mempelajari soal bias itu ternyata sangat menarik.

Salah satu jenis bias yaitu hindsight bias. credit to: Nicholson of "The Australian" newspaper http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/

Manusia sangat rentan memiliki bias terhadap suatu hal. Salah satu jenis bias yang paling berbahaya adalah secara alami kita selalu berpikir bahwa orang lain lebih rentan membuat kesalahan dibandingkan kita. Kecenderungan ini dikenal sebagai "bias blind spot". Seperti kata pepatah, "gajah di pelupuk mata tak tampak, semut di seberang lautan tampak". Kita mahir dalam menemukan kesalahan orang lain tapi tidak mampu melihat kesalahan yang sama pada diri kita. Contohnya? Tidak usah jauh-jauh. Lihat saja ibu-ibu yang suka bergosip dengan topik sekitar kesalahan dan kejelekan orang lain. Ho ho ho. Singkatnya, kita gampang mengabaikan kesalahan kita tetapi bersikap lebih kritis terhadap kesalahan orang lain. Akibatnya kita menilai pendapat kita terlalu tinggi dan menganggap pendapat orang lain yang bertentangan dengan kita lebih inferior.

Menariknya, suatu penelitian tahun 2012 menemukan bahwa orang dengan kemampuan kognitif yang tinggi (alias orang pintar) cenderung memiliki "bias blind spot" yang lebih tinggi dari orang biasa. Semakin pintar, semakin besar "bias blind spot"nya. Hal yang mungkin pertama-tama terdengar lucu, karena bukankah ada pepatah yang mengatakan bahwa orang yang semakin banyak belajar (dalam hal ini aku asumsikan berarti orang pintar) justru semakin mengetahui bahwa dia tidak tahu apa-apa? Tetapi jika dipikir lagi, tampaknya memang mungkin hal ini ada hubungannya.

Mungkin aku bisa menceritakan pengalamanku sendiri soal "bias blind spot". Tahun lalu aku mengikuti suatu pelatihan dimana peserta dibagi dalam beberapa kelompok untuk memecahkan kasus yang berbeda-beda. Aku sempat berdebat sengit dengan salah seorang peserta (Ph.D candidate dengan latar belakang Kimia) tentang cara menghitung dosis maksimal yang aman digunakan dari suatu senyawa toksik. Aku sendiri memiliki latar belakang Farmasi, dan kuakui bahwa meskipun aku tidak pernah menyombongkannya, dalam hati aku selalu merasa sebagai orang yang pintar dan kompeten. Farmakokinetik dan penentuan dosis merupakan salah satu kompetensi apoteker. Dengan cepat aku dapat menemukan kesalahan sistematis dalam cara perhitungan peserta tersebut. Sejujurnya perdebatan tersebut juga dibumbui dengan perasaan superior ("tahu apa sich dia soal perhitungan dosis dan farmakokinetik?", kira-kira begitulah suara kesombongan dari salah satu sudut hatiku). Perlu diketahui bahwa dalam pelatihan tersebut tidak ada kunci jawabannya. Yang penting adalah bagaimana kita bisa mempertahankan pendapat kita dan aku menang. Tapi setelah kupikir-pikir lagi, sebenarnya pemikiran peserta lain tersebut juga ada benarnya. Malah mungkin ada kekeliruan dalam perhitunganku karena tidak mempertimbangkan faktor yang disebut peserta tersebut. Akhirnya aku menyadari bahwa waktu itu aku terlalu kritis terhadap kesalahan orang lain dan gagal melihat kesalahan dalam pemikiranku sendiri. Hal ini membuatku berpikir bahwa orang yang merasa dirinya pandai ternyata tak sepandai yang dipikirkannya. Siapapun rentan membuat kesalahan pada bidang yang mungkin dianggap sudah dikuasai.

Yang bisa aku simpulkan dari pengalamanku sehari-hari adalah orang-orang dengan kemampuan kognitif tinggi cenderung menganggap dirinya pintar dan oleh karena itu tanpa disadari menjadi kurang awas dengan kesalahan sendiri. Beberapa kali terjadi, peneliti mengabaikan suatu efek atau fenomena yang dianggap sebagai "noise", "coincidence" atau "irrelevant". Hanya untuk menemukan beberapa tahun kemudian bahwa hal tersebut ternyata merupakan sesuatu yang penting. Sejauh ini, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa meskipun kita aware dengan adanya "bias blind spot", hal ini sulit untuk dihilangkan. Analisis tambahan juga menyebutkan bahwa meskipun kita bebas dari "bias blind spot", ternyata tidak membantu dalam menghindari cognitive bias lainnya. Akar dari bias sebagian besar berasal dari pemikiran alam bawah sadar. Oleh karena itu tidak dapat dilihat melalui self-analysis dan tidak dapat dicegah dengan intelegensi.

Waduh. Sepertinya cuap-cuapku kali ini menjadi sangat panjang. Inti dari yang ingin kukatakan adalah penting adanya kesadaran dan kemauan untuk menerima bahwa mungkin ada kesalahan dalam sistematika berpikir kita. Bagi yang merasa pintar, berpikiran terbuka dan tidak cuma memasang kacamata kuda mungkin membantu dalam mengurangi bias ini. ^^. So, what's your opinion about this?

Thursday, December 26, 2013

47 Ronin (Review)

Some of my friends say that this movie is bad. The others say that this movie is good. That's why after swimming in an apartment that luckily near Epicentrum XXI, I went there to see it for myself.


If you ask me about my impressions, I would say that this movie have a potential to be a good movie. The cinematography is good. The acting is generally good. I love Shibasaki Kou and Rinko Kikuchi in this movie. Ah, and also Hiroyuki Sanada. The CGI is quite good but looks really fake in some scenes. I'm pretty sure the depiction of Tengu in this movie is far from the depicted images from Japanese literature. The first half of the movie is too boring, which fortunately become more interesting in the latter half. But I had become lost interest at that time. Furthermore, I don't like the music score and the story went too far from the original. It doesn't have emotional punch that I've expected from a story as classic as 47 Ronin.

In the end, you could say that I have a mix opinion about this movie. I won't recommend you to watch it in the cinema. Maybe just rent it later. But I won't said that you better not watch this movie. It's not my cup of tea, but maybe it's yours. Have you watch this movie? Do you agree with me?

Dhoom 3 (Review)

Actually, I never intended to watch Dhoom 3. But because all 47 Ronin show time in Mal Kelapa Gading was sold out, I quickly decided to pick this movie in the cinema. It's been so long since the last time I watch an Indian Movie. The last one that I've watched was 3 Idiots and I really like it.  Coincidentally, those movies have the same main actor, Aamir Khan. So, is this movie as good as 3 idiots?

the movie poster. Credit to: www.santabanta.com
Fairly speaking, Dhoom 3 is an enjoyable movie. I might say that it's a great movie..... if you abandon your logic and accepted all that was shown in front of you. The acting is good. There's a blend of touching story, humour, romance and over-the-top action scenes. Ah, and the music is quite good too!

I have a few complaints about this movie. First is the over-the-top action scenes. You know there's something wrong with a film if the action scenes makes you shake heads, face-palmings, and laughing (because of the ridiculousness) rather than make your tension arise. Second, the story is somewhat predictable. Well, I've watched several heist movies and several movies about magician too. And from the moment they show the teleportation magic, I was quickly remember "The Prestige" and rightly guess that it has similar trick. That's why I didn't surprise at the revelation. But well, maybe it's just me.

Besides all of my complaints above, Dhoom 3 is really entertaining. So, just give it a shoot. Okay? Have you watch it? Tell me your opinion about it below.

Monday, December 16, 2013

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Review)

Okay. So last weekend I watched The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug in 4DX  3D format. In case you don't know what 4DX is, you could read the description here4DX allows a motion picture presentation to be augmented with environmental effects such as motion, scents, mist and wind, outside the standard video and audio. So basically there's a plenty of motion, breeze and water mist in the theater. This is not my first time to watch something in 4D. My first experience was in Batu Night Spectacular Malang and honestly it had more impact to me at that time, compared to when I watched The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. I think the main reason for this is because the movie that I've watched in Malang is specifically design for 4D while Desolation of Smaug isn't. That's why I think it didn't add more experience than watching that movie  in other format.

The poster. Credit to: fansided.com
If I'm allowed to be blunt, honestly I'm a little bit disappointed by this movie. Sure it is still a really good movie. But maybe my expectation is too high or maybe because I read the original book and feel this movie is stray far beyond the original story. Now I will tell you what I love about this movie first.

First of all, I love the acting. In my opinion, Martin Freeman is the best Bilbo you could ask for. He portrayed the dark side of Bilbo where he gradually attracted toward the darkness of the one ring perfectly. I love Ian McKellen as Gandalf the Grey too. Richard Armitage, Orlando Bloom and Evangeline Lily are kick-ass as Thorin, Legolas, and Tauriel. On the other side, I think Martin Freeman is underused in this movie. He didn't have that much scene because there's so many different story within this movie. As usual, the CGI is awesome. Not as awesome as usual though cause some background looks obviously fake. But I really like the production design. The spider scenes, the barrel scenes are interesting and excited. Really creative. The conversation between Smaug and Bilbo is a highlight in this movie. All hail to the dragon. I love Benedict Cumberbatch here. But honestly, the conversation between Bilbo and Smaug is not exactly went on  like in the book. It's longer. Oh. And I love Luke Evans as Bard the Bowman.

What I don't like is the music score of this movie. You know that there's something wrong with a movie as extravagant as this franchise if you don't remember any piece of music score in it. At least Song of Lonely Mountain from the first hobbit movie still linger in my head. Then, I don't like some additional story in this movie too. If you read The Hobbit book, surely you will know that Beorn have more role than that. They also make the time span of the dwarf taken prisoner by the elf shorter. It doesn't looks like they're in elf's prison for more than 2 weeks. And why they have to introduce love story between Thauriel and Kili? For the sake of making Thorin and the dwarfs look badass, this movie also add fighting scenes between them and Smaug, which is not really impresive. And what about the unsatisfied ending?

Forgive me from blabbering too much. Well, with all that's said, I still recommended you to watch it thought. This movie still have many scenes that would make you excited.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Frozen (Review)

Honestly, this year there wasn't any animation movie that satisfy me. I kind of expect that there will be no notable animation movie for 2013. That's what I thought. Until I've watch Frozen 2 weeks ago. After read several favorable reviews of this movie, I thought I might give it a shoot and didn't regret it.


Frozen is Walt Disney Animation's follow-up movie after Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph. A lovely tale based on Snow Queen by Hans Christian Andersen. The movie tell the story of 2 princesses, Elsa and Anna, in which the older sister (Elsa) has power to create ice and frozen things. Because she can't control it, in one occasion when they were a child, Elsa accidentally hurt Anna and finally decide to distance herself from everyone. Just read the synopsis here.

I would tell you what I love about this movie. The visual is amazing! The scene where Elsa build her ice castle in the mountain is breath-taking. It also emotional. I don't know why, I cry while watching this movie >////<. The music is spectacular and convey the emotional tone in this movie really well. The story is too simple and somewhat predictable, but since it's a family movie, I don't mind. Overall I really like this movie. I recommend you to watch it :D.